Perspective financial analysis under uncertainty

Violeta Janovič

Abstract


The main objective of the article is to show the process of the perspective financial analysis. It also demonstrates how presentation of results and possible conclusions can be changed when the description of financial point estimated parameters is declined and the possible probability distribution of those parameters is used instead.
The article examines the mechanism of moving from the financial analysis using point estimated parameters to the determination of those parameters using possibility distributions, and the management of the corresponding event possibilities. In the article, the perspective financial ratio analysis using imitative technologies is performed. Also the financial analysis results are described and interpreted under the assumption as to the stochasticity of their nature.
Evaluation of financial ratios using imitative technologies is complicated and requires additional knowledge. However, using imitative technologies is necessary, because this method adequately describes the analysed forecasted financial ratios. Financial analysis using point estimated parameters is quite simple, but important information for decision-making can be lost. This becomes evident by comparing point estimated values of the analysed financial ratios with possible probability distribution of the ratios, and by analysing main characteristics of these distributions.

Keywords


perspective financial analysis; uncertainty; imitation technologies

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"Business Systems & Economics" ISSN online 2029-8234