Scenario analysis under chaos

Magdalena Adamus, Piotr Markiewicz

Abstract


The aim of this study is to present how to modify classic scenario methods in order to adjust them to extremely unpredictable, chaotic conditions. It is an attempt to prove how it is possible to gradually adapt to changes of environment and indicate methods through which such adaptation can be more efficient. Due to the dynamic and complex character of interactions that take place in such unstable conditions, application of tools offered by scenario methods modified with some elements originating from studies on chaos has been proved to be effective.

Keywords


uncertainty; scenario analysis; evolution; strategic management

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.13165/IE-13-7-2-03

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"Intellectual Economics" ISSN online 1822-8038 / ISSN print 1822-8011