EVENT RISKS FROM THE STANDPOINT OF ENTROPY SYSTEMS

Vyacheslav Voloshyn, Viktoriya Saravas

Abstract


It is proposed to consider risk as an event category in the aspect of time, event and entropy scales in understanding their direction in relation to time, events and changes in the energy-entropics of the event system in the paper. A similar model for studying risks in any systems, not related to their probabilistic characteristics, is based on the concepts of catastrophe theory in the application at times on the time scale preceding the present time . Such a model can be easily represented in the form of a directed multilevel graph, the root directory of which displays one of the known bifurcations, at the moment of time , which turns into an accomplished event. The energy component of such an event in the form of its entropy gives an idea of the degree of reliability of the transition from uncertainty to a verified event. It is it that in the time interval  illustrates the magnitude and direction of event risk that can lead to accidents and other undesirable events. It can be argued that the multiple uncertainty that precedes the accomplished certainty in time is the key to understanding event risk as an analytical category.

Some examples show the methodology of using the theory of catastrophes in comparison with the time scales, events and entropy to study marketing risks associated with events that may occur.


Keywords


risk; theory of catastrophes; accomplished certainty; event certainty; probabilistic characteristics

Full Text:

PDF


DOI: https://doi.org/10.13165/PSPO-20-25-29

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.